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Preview: S14, Round Eleven, Day One
April 24 2008
It's Round Eleven of the Super 14 and as usual the congestion at the top of the ladder is building and it definitely is a time to test the nerves of players and coaches alike.
Just four rounds remain before next month's top four play-offs and the Stormers, Chiefs, Hurricanes and Blues all face must-win games to keep themselves in the semi-final race.
Friday's Anzac Day clash is the order of the day as two traditional New Zealand powerhouses - the Crusaders and the Blues - go head to head in Christchurch.
The six-time champion Crusaders are thirteen points clear of the Blues and have had a week to mull over shortcomings exposed by the Chiefs as they prepare to hit back against their seventh-placed visitors.
Elsewhere, the eighth-placed Brumbies must beat the last-placed Lions at home to keep their semi-final hopes alive, while the Western Force and defending champion Bulls have byes this weekend.
Crusaders v Blues
AMI Stadium, Christchurch, 19:35 (08:35 BST, 07:35 GMT)
This match had an early season billing as the most meaningful of the 2008 season and that may still be true, if only for the two sides taking the park rather than its original billing as a possible preview of the final.
The Blues have slipped to seventh in the standings - two points off the top four - but with just three rounds remaining, the Aucklanders' season has reached the make-or-break stage.
A minimum of four points are paramount to the Blues' cause in what is their Last Chance Saloon, and with a run home including away fixtures with the Reds and Highlanders along with the Hurricanes at Eden Park, it is already an uphill climb.
The Crusaders are still comfortable leaders but a second loss to follow their 18-5 toppling against the Chiefs will leave them lacking serious momentum less than a month out from the play-offs.
The men in red and black will want to build winning momentum again against the Blues after going down in Hamilton and while losses are never part of the blueprint, it may prove a blessing in disguise in the bigger picture.
In a surprise defeat, the Crusaders beast was awoken by the Chiefs, now the desperate Blues are in line to suffer the consequences in what looms as a high-voltage clash in Christchurch a week later.
A fatigued Crusaders side was in stark contrast to the Chiefs in Hamilton as the home side thrived on a huge Waikato Stadium crowd and simply had too much in the tank for the 2006 champions.
The Chiefs held all the energy and looked slick throughout, while the Crusaders were disjointed and perhaps lacking in cohesion after their bye a fortnight ago and fielding a second-string side against the Lions the previous week.
While losing their unbeaten record was obviously not part of the plan, coach Robbie Deans would have taken it in his stride and the timing of the loss could become a positive in the run-up to the play-offs next month.
With last year's semi-final loss to the Bulls in South Africa still fresh in the Crusaders' minds, they know they must keep winning to secure AMI Stadium as the venue this time around.
The Blues, who had the chance to rest their wearisome legs in Round Ten, will need to fire up straight away if they have any hope of securing a play-off spot - home or away.
However, coach David Nucifora and his troops must be contemplating the prospect of an early end to their Super 14 chances after losing two of their last six matches.
They aren't exactly oozing form either. The Blues' last outing before their bye was an atrocious 11-16 home defeat to the Brumbies and the week prior to that they were humbled 37-16 by the Waratahs in Sydney.
These results have had the pundits in a lather about another Blues season falling apart at the seams.
The crux of the Blues' problems comes down to their limited effectiveness with ball in hand and the answer lies in being more aggressive in the attacking game.
There's been noticeable tiredness within the Blues squad having their bye so late, but if they regain some much-needed confidence and get some physicality back in their attack - they should be alright.
But if anything is going to get this side back on track, it would be the challenge inspired by meeting the Crusaders on Anzac Day.
The Blues are the only team with a winning record against the Crusaders. Their eighth and most recent victory in 14 matches was last year, 34-25 at Eden Park, but crucially it came in the first week, when the Auckland-based side are seemingly at their best.
Super head to head: This all-New Zealand derby clash will feature some interesting match-ups. It will be a huge occasion for new Crusaders lock Ali Williams, who squares up against his former Blues team-mates for the first time since an acrimonious move south in the off-season. The All Black lock quit the Blues last year after a falling out with coach David Nucifora, and his preparations for his first meeting with his old team included wearing a Spiderman suit when fronting journalists this week at training. Whether Williams can spin a web and trap his ex-colleagues on the backfoot with another industrious performance remains to be seen. Blues' fly-half Nick Evans also faces a big challenge against Stephen Brett, and the latter's job should be that much easier given the Crusaders' dominance in the tight.
Prediction: The Blues are aware of how to win in Christchurch, having done so in 2004 and also being a side containing many players that were involved in Auckland's 26-15 Ranfurly Shield steal in the last round of the 2007 Air New Zealand Cup. But this is a different tournament played under different rules and circumstances. The Blues will run the Crusaders close, but it won't be enough to help them survive this one. The Crusaders to win by eight points.
Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Andrew Ellis, 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richard McCaw (c), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ross Filipo, 19 Nasi Manu, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i, 21 Hamish Gard, 22 Scott Hamilton
Blues: 15 Isa Nacewa, 14 David Smith, 13 Anthony Tuitavake, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Nick Evans, 9 Taniela Moa, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Troy Flavell (c), 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Nick White, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Kurtis Haiu, 19 Justin Collins, 20 Danny Lee, 21 Isaia Toeava, 22 Ben Atiga.
Referee: Lyndon Bray (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Paul Honiss (New Zealand), Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Television match official: Kane McBride (New Zealand)
Assessor: Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)
Brumbies v Lions
Canberra Stadium, Canberra, 19:40 (10:40 BST, 09:40 GMT)
The Brumbies' stirring wins over the Blues and Sharks will count for nothing unless they keep their Super 14 finals hopes alive by beating the last-placed Lions on Friday.
The Canberra-based franchise are another team who refuse to lie down and applause must be given to their inspiring comeback victory against the second-placed Sharks last week.
Down 13-0 early and 18-7 at half-time, the Brumbies scored 20 unanswered points at Canberra Stadium to score a 27-21 win over the previously unbeaten South Africans.
Back-to-back victories over the Blues and Sharks is no mean feat and the young Brumbies line-up deserves enormous credit for their recent exploits. Their improbable victories have catapulted them into eighth spot (24 points) and back into semi-finals contention.
On the other end of the scale, the Lions have had little to smile about since their Round One triumph over the Cheetahs. But the men from Johannesburg are no pushovers.
And although the Lions can't make the play-offs, they can still play a major role in determining which teams will contest the finals.
Their next two opponents - the Brumbies and Hurricanes - are both in the race to make the top four, so a win against one of them will set the cat amongst the pigeons.
So the likes of fellow South African teams, the Stormers and Sharks, will be hoping that the Lions can become giant killers in the next few weeks to make their job a tiny bit easier.
Heavy defeats to the Crusaders and Waratahs would suggest the Lions have given up on the season but that is definitely not the case as they were well in the contest on both occasions at half-time.
The Brumbies will have to be on their game to account for the lowly-ranked Lions and any hint of complacency could derail their mid-season push towards the semi-finals.
The Lions led the Crusaders 6-3 going into the half-time sheds in Round Nine, while a dour 0-0 scoreline was all the Lions and Waratahs could muster up in the opening 40 minutes last Saturday.
But after the break on both occasions, the Lions looked physically and mentally disinterested, and the result was two bonus-point wins gifted to Australasian opposition without so much as a whimper.
Lions coach Loffie Eloff has blamed inexperience for his team's poor second half showings in the last couple of matches, but a lack of fitness from his youngsters could also be partly to blame.
Though in the last ten or fifteen minutes against the Waratahs and the Crusaders, the Lions got on top of both of them again.
So where is it going wrong?
The Lions sink in the second half because they constantly go into a defensive mode and wait for their opposition to score. When teams do score against them, they go into a lull and this can be pointed to a lack of commitment at times.
Eloff has blamed inexperience all season for their run of eight losses in a row, but surely the players must be learning something - anything! - by now.
That it's taken eight defeats for the Lions' players to learn that the margin for error in the Super 14 is very small, should be worrying for Eloff.
And the fact that they still make basic mistakes - handling errors at vital times, lack of finishing and weak defence - indicates that no learning is taking place.
The usually ever-optimistic coach is even beginning to sound disillusioned and perturbed by minimal signs of improvement from his rookies.
He will also be rueing his insistence on the lack of any big-name purchases over the off-season. He has taken boys into a four-month long battle, and they are losing the war.
Eloff has selected young players as part of a three-year plan, but what they are learning from getting hammered every week is anybody's guess.
The Lions weren't expected to get into the semis this season, but 2008 was a brick in another South African coach's "building process". It seems as if they are only building underground instead of in the intended direction.
Super head to head: The Brumbies have done it with team work rather than individual brilliance on their way to consecutive victories. However Adam Ashley-Cooper is beginning to show signs of the form that saw him cement a permanent starting berth for the Wallabies last season. His two tries against the Sharks last week won the game for his team and although he'll be attacking from the wing this time round - expect the Brumbies' flyer to be the centre of attention. Opposite number Rayno Benjamin will be looking to put in a drastically improved performance after looking decidedly shaky against the Waratahs, particularly on defence.
Prediction: It will be interesting to see how much pride the Lions have in keeping this scoreline respectable. There's a lot of self belief in the Brumbies' squad at the moment - something that is seriously lacking in the Lions' camp - and will no doubt be a big advantage to the home team come kick-off. The Brumbies to win by fourteen points.
Brumbies: 15 Mark Gerrard, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Tyrone Smith, 11 Francis Fainifo, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Patrick Phibbs, 8 Julian Salvi, 7 George Smith, 6 Mitchell Chapman, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Alister Campbell, 3 Guy Shepherdson, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Nic Henderson
Replacements: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 Salesi Maafu, 18 Peter Kimlin, 19 Ben Alexander, 20 Stephen Hoiles, 21 Josh Holmes, 22 Sanualio Afeaki
Lions: 15 Earl Rose, 14 Louis Ludik, 13 Jannie Boshoff, 12 Walter Venter, 11 Rayno Benjamin, 10 Jaco van Schalkwyk, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Joe van Niekerk, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar, 5 Gerhard Mostert, 4 Dewald Senekal, 3 JC Janse van Rensburg, 2 Willie Wepener, 1 Heinke van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Ethienne Reynecke, 17 Eugene Maqwelana, 18 Franco van der Merwe,19 Wilhelm Koch, 20 Chris Jonck, 21 Rudi Vogt, 22 Dusty Noble.
Referee: Kelvin Deaker (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Chris Pollock (New Zealand), Brett Bowden (Australia)
Television match official: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)
Assessor: Wayne Erickson (Australia)
By Dave Morris