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Preview: Air NZ Cup, Round Ten
October 01 2008
More All Blacks return to their provinces as the Air New Zealand Cup reaches its cut-throat stage of the tournament this weekend.
And for powerhouses at risk of elimination such as Waikato, they will be hoping it's a case of better late than never as the Mooloos get the Round Ten action underway against Taranaki on Thursday.
Whoever wins the round opener at Waikato Stadium will be safe while the loser faces an anxious wait, potentially up to Sunday's final regular season match between Auckland and Northland at Eden Park.
By virtue of their eight from eight winning run, Canterbury cannot finish the competition round-robin any higher or lower than second.
Friday's opponent, Southland, lies fifth, and has a huge amount to play for on its home track.
The Ranfurly Shield may have been guaranteed a summer break in the capital and the number one spot secured in the Air New Zealand Cup, but Wellington still have plenty to play for against Otago this weekend in Dunedin.
Nothing short of a four-try bonus point win by Tasman will do against Manawatu in their clash at Palmerston North on Saturday.
The two points Taranaki gained last Thursday in losing 41-45 to Waikato leaves the Makos no option if they are to make the top eight play-offs.
Five points would draw them level on points with Taranaki (should the Amber and Blacks fail to take any points away from their trip to Hamilton) but the Makos would qualify because they won the round-robin clash between the two in Nelson.
Auckland have 22 points, four more than the Makos who would also overtake them if they failed to register a competition point against Northland at Eden Park.
Only four points cover places six to ten on the championship standings, raising the prospect of plenty of movement before the ladder settles.
Thursday, October 2
Waikato v Taranaki
Seventh-placed Taranaki visit eighth-placed Waikato on Thursday and neither side will be lacking motivation.
The formula at Waikato Stadium is a simple one - win and make the play-offs for sure, lose and sweat for the next 72 hours but run a real risk of missing out.
The last time the two provinces met was back in 2005 and on Thursday they will play each other for the first time in the Air New Zealand Cup competition.
Waikato has managed to get it right just in time this season, recovering from a dreadful start to post enough wins to haul itself up into play-off contention. How well the Mooloos performed last week must be balanced against how bad Otago were.
Taranaki did their best to lose at New Plymouth, making mistake after mistake before finally grabbing a fortuitous try on full-time to snatch a draw against Counties Manukau. Those two lost points could well return to haunt the 'Naki by Sunday evening.
In team news, Waikato has returned their four All Blacks to the starting XV - as would be expected - while skipper Liam Messam has been named to play despite a dodgy hamstring.
Waikato - the inaugural Air New Zealand Cup champions - stand to benefit from the infusion of international talent, though the Test stars' arrival does not necessarily represent a quick fix.
In recent seasons the belated introduction of All Blacks has not guaranteed domestic success.
While welcome from an experience point of view - and an obvious drawcard at the gate - All Blacks do not always make a seamless transition.
Still, at least they are making the right noises.
Richard Kahui, who has not played for Waikato since they won the first new-look final in 2006, said he was looking to "give it heaps".
Meanwhile, Taranaki will have to make do without their star full-back Asalemo Malo, who scored a vital try against the Steelers last week. His place has been taken by Jack Cameron, who gets his first start of the season.
Other changes from the side that drew with Counties Manukau are at hooker, prop and centre.
All Black Andrew Hore makes a welcome return at hooker and he will have young prop Shane Cleaver packing down with him in the front row along with captain Tony Penn. Cleaver gets the nod ahead of Hamish Mitchell, who drops back to the bench along with regular hooker Laurence Corlett.
Welshman Jonathan Spratt returns from a back injury and will start ahead of Nathan Hohaia, who is relegated to the bench.
"Shane added value around the ground when he came on against Counties and we decided to give him a crack," said Taranaki coach Adrian Kennedy.
"Having Andrew back is a big plus. Just seeing him at training is a boost. He's so decisive in his decision-making."
Kennedy said Spratt had recovered from a back injury that ruled him out of the Counties Manukau match.
Not considered for the match was midfielder Corey Niwa, who has a toe injury.
Prediction: This match is set to pave the way for thrills, spills and plenty of upsets along the way as the league stage of the 2008 tournament comes to a close. Who will seal their place in the top eight? We think the Mooloo men will have too much All Black firepower for the Amber and Blacks to deal with. Waikato to win by ten points.
The teams:
Waikato: 15 Sosene Anesi, 14 Tim Mikkleson, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Jackson Willison, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 David Bason; 8 Sione Lauaki, 7 Tom Harding, 6 Liam Messam (c), 5 Romana Graham, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Aled de Malmanche, 2 Ole Avei, 1 Hikairo Forbes.
Replacements: 16 Vern Kamo/Josh Hohneck, 17 Toby Smith, 18 Kent Fife, 19 Faifili Levave, 20 Malcolm Barnes, 21 Callum Bruce, 22 Dwayne Sweeney.
Taranaki: 15 Jack Cameron, 14 Paul Perez, 13 Jonathan Spratt, 12 Jayden Hayward, 11 Shayne Austin, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Brett Goodin; 8 Taiasina Tuifua, 7 Scott Waldrom, 6 Chris Walker, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Shane Cleaver, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Penn (c).
Replacements: 16 Laurence Corlett, 17 Hamish Mitchell, 18 Leon Power, 19 Nemia Soqeta, 20 Brendan Haami, 21 Isaia Tuifua, 22 Nathan Hohaia.
Venue: Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
Kick-off: 19:05 (07:05 GMT)
Referee: Chris Pollock
TMO: Steve Walsh
Friday, October 3
Southland v Canterbury
The Stags have left themselves the difficult assignment of beating Canterbury on Saturday to give Invercargill hope of hosting their first national provincial quarter-final in twelve years.
Canterbury are already assured of a home quarter-final, but Southland could improve from fifth into the top four if they could achieve a rare win against the Cantabs.
Saturday's must-win showdown comes after Southland slumped to a 24-22 loss to Bay of Plenty last week in a game the Stags put themselves in a position to win but failed to provide the killer blow.
Canterbury have put themselves in a very good position in the Air New Zealand Cup but, in terms of this game, there isn't a lot for them to play for.
Canterbury already have a firm grip on second place, underlining that they are peaking nicely by turning back Hawke's Bay 31-7 in Christchurch that took their tally of consecutive wins to eight.
The Cantabs will be further boosted by former All Blacks hooker Corey Flynn who will be making his first appearance in Canterbury's starting line-up when he heads to his old province Southland.
Flynn, who broke his arm playing the Super 14 semi-final against the Hurricanes in May, has played Canterbury's last two matches off the bench .
He replaces Ti'i Paulo in the front row for a match that will see Canterbury finish runner-up to Wellington in the regular season regardless of the result at Invercargill's Rugby Park.
In other changes from the side, Colin Slade replaces fly-half Stephen Brett, who limped off with a quadriceps injury while Hamish Gard starts ahead of regular inside centre Tim Bateman.
Coach Rob Penney has also taken the opportunity to rest some of his front line pack with number eight Mose Tuiali'i named on the bench and prop Wyatt Crockett spared the trip south, giving Peter Borlase a rare start at loosehead.
Captain Kieran Read fills in for Tuiali'i, Hayden Hopgood starts on the blindside and George Whitelock at openside.
Penney also has the luxury of including All Blacks prop Greg Somerville among the reserves while centre Casey Laulala makes the matchday squad for the first time this season as he completes his rehabilitation from a broken arm suffered in the pre-season.
Despite the changes, Penney insisted Canterbury were not taking confirmed quarter-finalists Southland lightly.
"You only have to look at their narrow loss in the Shield game against Auckland (13-9) to see they are a tough nut to crack," he said.
"Their forwards are very competitive all over the park and we never seem to have it easy in Invercargill."
Prediction: The Cantabs may not have it easy in the deep south, but we sure can't see them losing this one based on their current form home and away. Canterbury to win by seven points.
The teams:
Southland: 15 Mark Wells, 14 Willie Rickards, 13 Matt Saunders, 12 Jason Kawau, 11 Pehi Te Whare, 10 Robbie Robinson, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Dion Bates, 7 Tim Boys, 6 Hoani Macdonald, 5 Josh Bekhuis, 4 Joe Tuineau, 3 Chris King, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (c).
Replacements: 16 Matt Holloway, 17 Micheal Peterson/Fai Mika, 18 Daniel Ramsay, 19 Pete Copeland, 20 Scott Cowan, 21 Blair Stewart, 22 Tane Puki.
Canterbury: 15 Scott Hamilton, 14 James Paterson, 13 Adam Whitelock, 12 Hamish Gard, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Andrew Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 George Whitelock, 6 Hayden Hopgood, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Michael Paterson, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Peter Borlase.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Greg Somerville, 18 Isaac Ross, 19 Mose Tuiali'i, 20 Tyson Keats, 21 Casey Laulala, 22 Tim Bateman.
Venue: Rugby Park Stadium, Invercargill
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Referee: Josh Noonan
TMO: Garratt Williamson
Hawke's Bay v Bay of Plenty
A confident Bay of Plenty outfit turn their thoughts to Hawke's Bay in Napier on Friday.
This has the potential to be an absolute cracker of a match. Two sides that have impressed throughout the tournament go head to head in a bid to cement their well earned place in the quarter-finals.
The Magpies' loss to Canterbury, who remain in third place on 29 points - one ahead of Bay of Plenty, and four in front of fifth-placed Southland - did little to tarnish their play-off hopes.
Hawke's Bay was almost shut out in Christchurch but Canterbury, in that form, would have been a tough nut for anyone to crack.
Bay of Plenty did enough against Southland - running up a big first-half lead, scoring once into the breeze and defending like mad. It worked, but only just. Had Southland taken better care of the ball the Steamers probably would have come second.
Hawke's Bay has made two changes, both voluntary.
Matt Egan has been replaced in the engine room by Johan Snyman and Aayden Clarke comes in for Daniel Waenga at fly-half. Karl Lowe is in doubt with a pinched nerve in his back but will play if he can.
Bay of Plenty has made one change, with injury forcing Jason Hona out of this match. Toby Arnold, a more than handy replacement, comes in on the wing.
Prediction: We could see a potential draw in the making here - that's how close these two teams are. But alas, there can be only one winner. After flipping a coin and calling tails, the Magpies get our vote. Hawke's Bay to win by three points.
Hawke's Bay: 15 Israel Dagg 14 Jason Kupa, 13 Jason Shoemark, 12 Sam Giddens, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Aayden Clarke, 9 Danny Lee (c), 8 George Naoupu, 7 Karl Lowe/Pama Petia, 6 Michael Johnson, 5 Bryn Evans, 4 Johan Snyman, 3 Anthony Perenise, 2 Hikawera Elliot, 1 Faka'anaua Taumalolo.
Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Josh Keys, 18 Matt Egan, 19 Petia/Adam Bradey, 20 Chris Eaton, 21 Daniel Waenga, 22 Mark Jackman.
Bay of Plenty: 15 Zar Lawrence, 14 Lance MacDonald, 13 Corey Aporo, 12 Nigel Hunt, 11 Toby Arnold, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Ruki Tipuna, 8 Colin Bourke, 7 Tanerau Latimer (c), 6 Solomon King, 5 Culum Retallick, 4 John Moore, 3 James McGougan, 2 John Pareanga, 1 Joe Savage.
Replacements: 16 Dean Elmiger, 17 Arden David-Perrot, 18 Aidan Kuka, 19 Luke Braid, 20 Josh Hall, 21 Kelly Haimona, 22 Paula Asaeli.
Venue: McLean Park, Napier
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Referee: Steve Walsh
TMO: Bryce Lawrence
Saturday, October 4
Manawatu v Tasman
Tasman are tenth on 18 points and require maximum points from cellar-dwelling Manawatu in Saturday's match to keep in contention - at least mathematically.
Although the amalgamation between Nelson Bays and Marlborough appears dead in the water, Tasman would have taken great heart from their bold challenge for the Log o'Wood in Wellington last weekend.
Just 24 hours after their unexpected reprieve by the NZRU, Tasman almost transformed a memorable weekend into an unforgettable one when they produced a magnificent challenge to all but lift the Ranfurly Shield off stunned holder Wellington.
It was Wellington's first and only shield defence of the season after ending a 26-year drought with victory over Auckland the previous week. But it could so easily have been their last - and one of the biggest upsets in Ranfurly Shield history - as Tasman's spirited and passionate challenge fell achingly short of the mark.
Wellington eventually prevailed 26-20 but required two crucial tries with Tasman reduced to 14 men when scrum-half Kahn Fotuali'i was sin-binned by referee Matt Stanish for a breakdown infringement with around ten minutes remaining.
The match between Waikato and Taranaki on Thursday should eliminate one of Tasman's rivals, but they will still need to beat Manawatu in Palmerston North on Saturday to make sure of their place.
Prediction: Tasman only have themselves to blame if they fail to take the maximum points in this must-win encounter. Tasman by seven points or more.
The teams:
Manawatu: 15 Francisco Bosch, 14 Lote Raikabula, 13 Johnny Leota, 12 Francis Bryant, 11 Andre Taylor, 10 Matty James, 9 Stephen Treleavan, 8 Hamish Gosling, 7 Doug Tietjens, 6 Nick Crosswell, 5 Adaam Ross, 4 Hayden Triggs, 3 David Te Moana, 2 Sean O'Connor, 1 Grant Polson.
Replacements: 16 Rob Foreman, 17 Ma'afu Fia, 18 Paul Rodgers, 19 Mitchell Crosswell, 20 Joggie Viljoen, 21 Tomasi Cama, 22 Kurt Baker.
Tasman: 15 Robbie Malneek, 14 Blair Cook, 13 Kade Poki, 12 Andrew Goodman (c), 11 Afeleki Pelenise, 10 Miah Nikora, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i; 8 Mark Bright, 7 Jonathan Poff, 6 Jack Lam, 5 Alex Ainley, 4 Will Crutchley, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Daniel Perrin, 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Tristan Moran, 18 Joe Wheeler, 19 Daniel Hyatt, 20 Lualua Vailoaloa, 21 James Marshall, 22 Mike Pehi.
Venue: FMG Stadium, Palmerston North
Kick-off: 14:35 (02:35 GMT)
Referee: Keith Brown
TMO: Chris Pollock
Counties Manukau v North Harbour
This match of the round is of little consequence, as Counties Manukau and North Harbour strive simply to finish disappointing campaigns on a mild high at Mount Smart Stadium on Saturday.
All Black Anthony Tuitavake's back from injury and will play at outside centre for North Harbour.
Tuitavake hasn't played since injuring his cheek for the All Blacks against Samoa in New Plymouth last month.
The New Zealand international has been paired in the midfield with his younger brother Nafi and with Harbour out of quarter-finals contention this will be his last bid to be included in the All Blacks end of year Grand Slam tour.
Prediction: Counties will put up a brave fight, but Harbour will have the final say and end their disastrous season on a high. North Harbour to win by twelve points.
The teams:
Counties Manukau: 15 Koiatu Koiatu, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Siale Piutau, 12 Dean Cummins, 11 Sherwin Stowers, 10 Tasesa Lavea (c), 9 Kevin Farrell, 8 Gary Saifoloi, 7 DJ Forbes, 6 Fritz Lee, 5 Andrew Van der Heijden, 4 Jamie Chipman, 3 Simon Lemalu, 2 Lance Po-ching, 1 Tuaefe Palelei.
Replacements: 16 Ilaisa Maasi, 17 Kojak Faioso, 18 Rupeni Nasiga, 19 Mark Selwyn, 20 Samisoni Fisilau, 21 Jason Roache, 22 Tanner Vili.
North Harbour: 15 Jack McPhee, 14 Josh York, 13 Anthony Tuitavake, 12 Nafi Tuitavake, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Jimmy Gopperth (c), 9 Chris Smylie, 8 Viliame Maafu, 7 Malakai Ravulo, 6 Chris Smith, 5 Bernie Upton, 4 Anthony Boric, 3 Michael Reid, 2 James Hinchco, 1 James Afoa.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Sam Biddles, 18 Martin Purdy, 19 Robbie Colhoun, 20 Matt France, 21 Ray Alo/Tom Chamberlain, 22 Viliame Waqaseduadua.
Venue: Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland
Kick-off: 17:30 (05:30 GMT)
Referee: Kelvin Deaker
TMO: Vinny Munro
Otago v Wellington
Otago are now between a rock and a hard place as the Air New Zealand Cup strugglers face a good chance of not reaching the last eight when they come up against Wellington on Saturday.
There is every prospect that the Super 14 franchise base province will miss out on a place in the quarter-finals after their latest setback.
It is an ignominious predicament to be in but one of their own making after Otago slumped to 11th place on the back of a 10-39 reverse to Waikato in Hamilton last week, when the home side's captain Liam Messam caused most of the damage with a hat-trick of tries.
It left coach Steve Martin with a difficult week, one in which he has had to lift his players' heads as they prepare to take on runaway competition leaders Wellington in the closing round of round robin matches.
It is a match Otago simply must win to retain any hope of featuring in the play-offs, but it appears a bridge too far against a Wellington side who have set the pace since the early stages.
The only factor in Otago's favour for the game on Saturday is that it is a home fixture, but that has not helped the southerners this season as they have faltered badly in the latter stages of the competition.
Form and fitness concerns have led Martin to make six changes to his starting XV, with All Black Adam Thomson returning from his international commitments to take over on the openside flank in place of Eben Joubert.
Otago's shoddy form and has not been helped by injuries to Ben Smith and Lucky Mulipola.
Smith has a fractured foot, meaning his place at full-back has gone to Chris Noakes, while Karne Hesketh has been shunted from the left wing to the right to replace Mulipola, who has been ruled of the game due to a bout of concussion.
Andrew Parata will make his Cup debut on the left wing, while Martin has promoted Sean Romans to start at scrum-half in place of Toby Morland.
Wellington will head to Dunedin determined to maintain their unbeaten record as the play-offs loom, their players mightily relieved to have held on to the Ranfurly Shield after repulsing a gallant challenge from Tasman in the capital last weekend.
A week after relieving Auckland of the shield, Wellington were in danger of promptly losing it as Tasman played above themselves when leading 11-10 entering the last 10 minutes.
Wellington eventually got home 26-20 - failing to secure a bonus point for the first time this year.
It was Wellington's shakiest performance of the season but with the shield now safely tucked away for the summer they can turn their full attention to the Cup title, starting with Otago.
With a play-off's spot assured, Wellington coach Jamie Joseph has taken the opportunity to rest some key players ahead of the Air New Zealand Cup quarter-finals.
Piri Weepu, Corey Jane and Hosea Gear are all absent from the Lions' matchday 22, and are given a chance to freshen up ahead of the play-offs.
Chris Masoe will captain the team from the blindside with All Blacks centre Ma'a Nonu on the bench.
Prediction: With the Lions already thinking ahead towards hosting a much-deserved quarter-final and potential semi-final and final, Otago could make amends for their forgettable season by knocking Wellington off their high pedestal. Otago to surprise everyone and win by the smallest of margins. Stranger things have happened!
The teams:
Otago: 15 Chris Noakes, 14 Karne Hesketh, 13 Brett Mather, 12 Dan Snee, 11 Andrew Parata, 10 Daniel Bowden, 9 Sean Romans, 8 Steven Setephano, 7 Adam Thomson, 6 Craig Newby (c), 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Ross Kennedy, 3 Ben Nolan, 2 Peter Mirrielees, 1 Keith Cameron.
Replacements: 16 Jason Macdonald, 17 Jed Vercoe, 18 Uili Kolo'ofai, 19 Eben Joubert, 20 Toby Morland, 21 Alipate Fatefehi, 22 Glen Dickson.
Wellington: 15 Buxton Popoalii, 14 Tu Umaga-Marshall, 13 Tane Tu'ipulotu, 12 Michael Hobbs, 11 Joe Hill, 10 Daniel Kirkpatrick, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Chris Masoe (c), 5 Ross Filipo, 4 Api Naikatini, 3 John Schwalger, 2 Ged Robinson, 1 Neemia Tialata.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Tim Fairbrother, 18 Jeremy Thrush, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Tomasi Palu, 21 Fa'atonu Fili, 22 Ma'a Nonu.
Venue: Carisbrook, Dunedin
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Referee: Garratt Williamson
TMO: Josh Noonan
Sunday, October 5
Auckland v Northland
The defending champion Aucklanders, currently sixth, appear on track for the quarter-finals but cannot afford to take a Northland side on a two-match winning streak for granted.
Northland, who banked wins either side of learning they will be retained in the competition next year, are a place outside the top eight and need a rare win on Auckland turf to make the cut.
Auckland, meanwhile, will know exactly what is required come kick-off.
Having held off North Harbour 29-22 last week (after leading 29-3), Auckland complete their programme with a home match against Northland, which they would ordinarily be expected to win with comfort.
But Auckland have been mediocre for much of the competition and Northland, buoyed by a stay of execution in the New Zealand Rugby Union boardroom last week, hit their straps to win a ten-try thriller 45-24 over Manawatu in Whangarei last weekend.
That lifted them to ninth place, with only Auckland standing between them and what only weeks ago looked a most unlikely play-offs berth.
Auckland are set to welcome back forwards John Afoa, Jerome Kaino and Keven Mealamu, a trio that would have been useful two rounds ago when the Ranfurly Shield was handed over to Wellington.
Prediction: This outcome of this match could be closer than most people think. If Northland can play the way they did last time out, there could be an upset on the cards. But we have a feeling the home side will have an ace up their sleeve. Auckland to win by ten points or more.
The teams:
Auckland: 15 Jamie Helleur, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Ben Atiga (c), 12 Benson Stanley, 11 David Smith, 10 Isaia Toeava, 9 Grayson Hart; 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Onosa'i Auva'a, 6 Dean Budd, 5 Jay Williams, 4 Stan Haukinima, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tevita Mailau.
Replacements: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Chris Lowrey, 19 Peter Saili, 20 Junior Poluleuligaga, 21 Winston Stanley, 22 Watisoni Lotawa.
Northland: 15 Jared Payne, 14 Fetu Vainikolo, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Aden Dewes, 11 Mike Davis, 10 David Holwell, 9 Brenton Helleur, 8 Justin Collins (c), 7 Joel McKenty, 6 Blair Urlich, 5 Marty Veale, 4 Dan Goodwin, 3 Bronson Murray, 2 Francis Smith, 1 Tony Coughlan.
Replacements: 16 Tyler Ashworth, 17 Jason Hammond, 18 Roy Griffin, 19 John Cocker, 20 James Rodley, 21 Ash Moeke, 22 Derek Carpenter.
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 14:35 (02:35 GMT)
Referee: Vinny Munro
TMO: Jonathon White