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Preview: Air NZ Cup quarter-finals

October 09 2008

Intriguing possibilities have arisen in the quarter-finals for the Air New Zealand Cup to be played at the weekend, and with Auckland out, we are certain to have a new winner in 2008...

But that's still 240 minutes of rugby away; for now, the focus is on who can get past the quarter-finals in one piece.

The top four of Wellington, Canterbury, Hawke's Bay and Bay of Plenty will host the quarter-finals in a knock-out process with the highest qualifier playing the lowest qualifier in the semi-finals.

Canterbury and Tasman will play out a local derby in Christchurch on Friday, with the hosts expected to maintain their winning sequence through the latter stages of the competition.

Wellington, the minor championship winner, suffered their first loss at the weekend when going down to non-qualifier Otago, but can expect a better outcome against Taranaki at Westpac Stadium on Saturday when starting with their leading players who were rested for the game played in Carisbrook.

That match will be followed up by Bay of Plenty trying to put a halt to their run of losses towards the end of the season, when having a rematch with Southland at Mount Maunganui.

In the last three weeks Southland are the only team Bay of Plenty have beaten following defeats to Auckland, Canterbury and Hawke's Bay.

Waikato, who have come home strongly in the competition, will need to win their first game in four attempts against Hawke's Bay in Napier on Sunday to advance.

Canterbury v Tasman

After a dramatic final weekend of Air New Zealand Cup round robin action, Canterbury will host Tasman in the opening quarter-final at AMI Stadium on Friday.

On the strength of August's 44-15 win over the Makos in Round Five, Rob Penney's team ought to go into this match as overwhelming favourites. But, as both sides know all too well, the red-and-blacks have yet to advance to an Air New Zealand Cup final.

Useful regular season form has not been replicated in the play-offs and, bitter experience means it is hard to confidently predict this time will be different.

In the remaining weeks that really matter, it will be interesting to see how the Cantabs maintain their focus and come through with the added pressure.

Canterbury got knocked out in the quarter-finals in the first year of the Air New Zealand Cup and again in the semi-finals last year.

So it's safe to say they've had their fair share of heartache, but that may give them a wee bit of attitude heading into the business end of this year's tournament.

Tasman have had so many off-field issues swirling around that no-one could begrudge their players folding up the tent and going home this season. Instead the Makos have qualified for the play-offs in seventh place in what is a major triumph for their unity and mental toughness.

They've got good aspects to their continuity, their set piece is effective and their defence is difficult to penetrate. Put those three elements together and you've got yourself a worthy contender for the semis.

After their last outing against Canterbury, Tasman will be fired up to have another crack at the men in red and black. And with the Crusaders Super 14 squad only three weeks from being named, there are incentives all over the park for them to make an impression.

This could therefore be a game that may have a bit of spark about it.

Furthermore, Tasman are boosted by the return of All Black lock Brad Thorn who is the only change to the starting pack. The visitors will also field an unchanged backline when they attempt to defy the odds and exact revenge.

Meanwhile, Canterbury have made seven changes to their starting line-up from last week's 25-6 defeat of Southland in Invercargill, the most noticeable being the return of Richie McCaw to provincial duty, albeit on the bench.

Auckland-bound wing Paul Williams returns from a knee injury on the right wing, which switches James Paterson to the left.

Casey Laulala is back in the run-on side as he continues to make a bright recovery from a broken arm and he will be partnered in midfield by the in-form Tim Bateman.

All Black prop Greg Somerville starts on the tighthead side where he will partner Wyatt Crockett, who was rested against Southland, and Owen Franks drops to the bench.

Isaac Ross also returns to the forward pack and will join Michael Paterson in the Canterbury second row as they face a tough task against Crusader hard man Thorn.

Prediction: This Makos team has already created history by making the quarter-finals against the odds. Canterbury might just find little brother a whole lot more aggravating than they imagined second time around, but will still come away with a victory. Canterbury to win by ten points or more.

The teams:

Canterbury: 15 Scott Hamilton, 14 Paul Williams, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 James Paterson, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 George Whitelock, 6 Hayden Hopgood, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Michael Paterson, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Owen Franks, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Richie McCaw, 20 Tyson Keats 21 Hamish Gard, 22 Adam Whitelock.

Tasman: 15 Robbie Malneek, 14 Blair Cook, 13 Kade Poki, 12 Andrew Goodman, 11 Afeleke Pelenise, 10 Miah Nikora, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Mark Bright, 7 Jonathan Poff, 6 Alex Ainley, 5 Brad Thorn, 4 Will Crutchley, 3 Tristan Moran, 2 Dan Perrin, 1 Ben May.

Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Sakaria Taulafo, 18 Joe Wheeler, 19 Dan Hyatt, 20 Lualua Vailoaloa, 21 James Marshall, 22 Mike Pehi.

Date: Friday, October 10

Venue: AMI Stadium, Christchurch

Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)

Referee: Jonathon White

Touch judges: Chris Pollock, Keith Brown

Television match official: Kelvin Deaker

Wellington v Taranaki

Wellington's reward for topping the Air New Zealand Cup round-robin is a testing home quarter-final against franchise partners and surprise qualifiers Taranaki at Westpac Stadium on Saturday.

The quirks of the complicated fourteen-team championship meant Wellington and Taranaki never met in this year's round-robin but the Lions will start as comfortable favourites for their play-off in the capital.

The Amber and Blacks probably thought they were destined to miss out after dropping last week's Thursday thriller in Hamilton 45-41 to Waikato, but claimed the final qualifying spot when Auckland bumbled their way to a home defeat against Northland which saw both Blues partners miss out on the quarter-final spoils.

Wellington finished the round-robin on a low note, stumbling to their only defeat of the campaign, well beaten 36-21 by Otago who brought the greater intensity to a dead rubber as they farewelled skipper Craig Newby in style.

What impact it has on the momentum going into the play-offs won't be known until kick-off come Saturday, but it should be only minimal.

The loss also has to be put into context. Wellington had an unassailable lead at the top of the Air New Zealand Cup and coach Jamie Joseph had rested a swag of his frontline players because of that.

However, the absence of all that experience played a big part in the defeat as the Lions blew a 14-3 half-time lead, leaking 26 unanswered points at Carisbrook and with it Wellington's dream of a perfect season.

Their top side will run out this weekend, and the Lions have built a formidable record at their Wellington den. They have won their last eighteen games at Westpac Stadium - a run that goes back to a 2005 loss to Otago on August 26.

This week's team will see the return of Piri Weepu, Hosea Gear, Cory Jane and Tamati Ellison who were not in the playing 22 at Carisbrook, as well as lock Jeremy Thrush and hooker Dane Coles, who were both on the bench.

The Lions are further boosted by the return of two All Blacks in Ma'a Nonu at centre and Rodney So'oialo who will take his place on the bench.

Taranaki have made one injury-enforced change from the side. Welsh centre Jonathan Spratt has failed to overcome a back injury and is replaced by Nathan Hohaia.

The 'Naki have to go back to 2003 to find their last win against Wellington although this Hurricanes derby is always full of passion.

Prediction: Will Wellington possess the killer instinct to put teams away come the play-offs? The proof will be in the pudding, and we think Taranaki are going to give their neighbours a bad case of toothache, albeit until the last few minutes of the match. Wellington to win a closely fought encounter by seven points.

The teams:

Wellington: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Buxton Popoali'i, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Piri Weepu (c), 9 Alby Matthewson; 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Chris Masoe, 5 Jeremy Thrush, 4 Ross Filipo, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Dane Coles, 1 John Schwalger.

Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Api Naikatini, 19 Rodney So'oialo, 20 Daniel Kirkpatrick, 21 Michael Hobbs, 22 Tane Tu'ipulotu.

Taranaki: 15 Jack Cameron, 14 Paul Perez, 13 Nathan Hohaia, 12 Jayden Hayward, 11 Shayne Austin, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Brett Goodin, 8 Taiasina Tuifua, 7 Scott Waldrom, 6 Chris Walker, 5 Craig Clarke, 4 Jason Eaton, 3 Shane Cleaver, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Penn (c).

Replacements: 16 Laurence Corlett, 17 Hamish Mitchell, 18 Leon Power, 19 Nemia Soqeta, 20 Brendan Haami, 21 Isaia Tuifua, 22 Corey Niwa.

Date: Saturday, October 11

Venue: Westpac Stadium Wellington

Kick-off: 17:05 (05:05 GMT)

Referee: Bryce Lawrence

Touch judges: Kelvin Deaker, Josh Noonan

TMO: Keith Brown

Bay of Plenty v Southland

This quarter-final looks to be the most even with fourth qualifier Bay of Plenty and fifth qualifier Southland clashing at Mount Maunganui on Saturday.

Both Southland and Bay of Plenty will be on the rebound this week, the Stags after losing 25-6 to Canterbury and the Steamers after being outplayed 46-12 by the in-form Hawke's Bay.

The two unfashionable sides almost mirrored each other during round-robin play this year with solid efforts. The Steamers won 24-22 when the teams met in the ninth round in Mount Maunganui two weeks ago, setting up their victory with three first-half tries.

Southland roared back in the second spell and were within a drop-goal of clinching a win that would have sealed them a home quarter-final.

However, if Southland are to make their presence felt in the play-offs, they need to do a lot more.

From the eight teams that have qualified for this year's quarter-finals, Southland have scored the fewest tries and also the lowest number of points overall.

From ten round-robin games this season Southland have scored twenty tries, which on average is two tries an outing.

Eleven of those twenty tries came from the games against Counties and North Harbour, while in their other eight games Southland have registered nine tries.

Ironically, Southland also scored only twenty tries in ten round-robin games during the 2007 season before the season fizzed out with a 45-6 quarter-final loss to Wellington.

But if Southland beat Bay of Plenty 3-0 to advance to the semi-finals it is unlikely too many Stags fans will be whining about Southland's try-scoring inabilities!

The Steamers' big defeat to Hawke's Bay did not stop them hanging on to fourth spot, though they too will have to lift their game considerably if they're to see off their opponents.

Bay of Plenty have got a very good loose trio with Colin Bourke, Tanerau Latimer and Solomon King, a very good running scrum-half in Ruki Tipuna and a fly-half in Mike Delany who can control the game tactically.

Plus Bay of Plenty have got some very good sevens players who like to throw the ball around.

But they've used almost the same starting team for the whole season and perhaps the Steamers may be feeling some fatigue heading into the closing stages of the tournament.

In saying that, there has been just one change to last week's starting line-up, with left wing Jason Hona returning from injury. The inclusion of Hona will see the Steamers at full strength in the sudden death eliminator.

Prediction: If the last outing between these two sides is anything to go by, this quarter-final should be a cracking contest. Can the Steamers go the distance? Can the Stags make up for their try-scoring drought? Only time will tell, but we feel the team that starts well will come up trumps. Tough one, but we're sticking our neck out here. Southland to win by three points or less.

The teams:

Bay of Plenty: 15 Zar Lawrence, 14 Lance MacDonald, 13 Cory Aporo, 12 Nigel Hunt, 11 Jason Hona, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Ruki Tipuna, 8 Colin Bourke, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Solomon King, 5 Culum Retallick, 4 John Moore, 3 John McGougan, 2 John Pareanga, 1 Joe Savage.

Replacements: 16 Dean Elmiger, 17 Matt Wallace, 18 Josh Katene, 19 Aiden Kuka, 20 Luke Braid, 21 Josh Hall, 22 Toby Arnold.

Southland: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Kendrick Lynn, 13 Matt Saunders, 12 Jason Kawau, 11 Pehi Te Whare, 10 Blair Stewart, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 David Hall, 7 Tim Boys, 6 Dion Bates, 5 Hoani Macdonald, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Chris King, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Jamie Mackintosh.

Replacements: 16 Matt Holloway, 17 Fai Mika, 18 Daniel Ramsay, 19 John Hardie/ Joe Tuineau, 20 Scott Cowan, 21 Mark Wells, 22 Willie Rickards.

Date: Saturday, October 11

Venue: Bay Park Stadium, Mt Maunganui

Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)

Referee: Steve Walsh

Touch judges: Garratt Williamson, Matthew Stanish

Television match official: Ben Skeen

Hawke's Bay v Waikato

Waikato have scored a chance for Napier redemption in the Air New Zealand Cup quarter-finals when they come up against Hawke's Bay - a repeat of last year's play-offs clash between the two sides.

The Magpies have beaten Waikato three competition games in a row at McLean Park and four games in a row if the non-first class pre-season clash earlier this year is counted.

Waikato have to go back to the inaugural Air New Zealand Cup in 2006 to find any joy against the Magpies when they won 42-23 in Napier on their march to the title.

Waikato beat Taranaki 45-41 at Waikato Stadium last Thursday to secure their place in the top eight and then had to wait for the rest of the final round-robin games over the weekend before knowing just who they might play in the quarter-finals.

The 2006 champs have sprung to life at the right time of the season this year, winning their last two matches to earn what had appeared to be an unlikely quarter-finals berth. But Sunday's play-off will be a huge test of their momentum.

The Mooloos have received a massive boost with news that All Black full-back Mils Muliaina is available this weekend for his first game since 2006, however team captain Liam Messam (hamstring) and Stephen Donald (strained rib cartilage) won't be seen in action.

In Faifili Levave and Callum Bruce, Waikato have players more than able to step up and take their places in the key six and ten jerseys.

Peter Russell's side have fashioned an impressive 7-3 win-loss record this year built around a solid team approach, and continued their impressive form in the tournament by claiming third after walloping Bay of Plenty in Napier.

In team news, first choice pivot Matt Berquist makes his return to the Hawke's Bay starting line-up from a month-long injury break and is the only change in the starting XV.

The fly-half returns to action for the first time since breaking a finger on his left hand against Taranaki on September 4.

In another boost for Hawke's Bay, on-loan tighthead prop Anthony Perenise, briefly recalled to Wellington to cover for injuries to Neemia Tialata and John Schwalger, has been named in a forward pack unchanged from the eight who started in last weekend's victory.

Prediction: Mentally, the Magpies have an edge over their visitors. Physically, Waikato may overpower their hosts with four All Blacks (five if Donald plays) in their team. But Hawke's Bay have proved time and time again that they don't need any All Blacks to win matches. Hawke's Bay to win by five points.

The teams:

Hawke's Bay: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Jason Kupa, 13 Jason Shoemark, 12 Sam Giddens, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Matt Berquist, 9 Danny Lee (captain), 8 George Naoupu, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Michael Johnson, 5 Bryn Evans, 4 Johan Snyman, 3 Anthony Perenise, 2 Hikawera Elliott, 1 Faka'anaua Taumalolo.

Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Josh Keys, 18 Matt Egan, 19 Pama Petia, 20 Chris Eaton, 21 Daniel Waenga, 22 Aayden Clarke.

Waikato: tbc

Date: Sunday, October 12

Venue: McLean Park, Napier

Kick-off: 14:35 (02:35 GMT)

Referee: Vinny Munro

Touch judges: Chris Pollock, Brent Murray

TMO: Josh Noonan