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Preview: S. Africa v New Zealand

July 30 2009

It's a very different situation to last week's. Then, New Zealand were number one in the world and still confident. Now, the Kiwis are flapping with uncertainty.

Rugby is stats, and the current stats for this 2009 team make for unpleasant reading. They have notched only eight tries in five matches this year, the worst return since the dawn of professionalism. Even a weakened and tired Italy team yielded only three to the All Blacks, only 20 months after the All Blacks had smashed the Azzurri in Marseille.

Wayne Smith pointed at small but costly errors in execution and the unsettled nature of a plethora of new combinations in the side, but time is running out a bit for this team. Another defeat here and their Tri-Nations defence hangs by a thread.

Durban is a happy hunting ground for the All Blacks. They've won three of the five matches here, including a come-from-behind 26-21 victory two years ago with the winning try scored by a certain Josevata Rokocoko, courtesy of a blistering counter attack.

While new combinations in the side struggle to find their feet, Rokocoko is one of the established players who appears to have fallen off his. Graham Henry has publicly fired a warning shot to the effect that Rokocoko is living on borrowed time on the wing while he fails to fire and Smith also dropped a less than subtle hint that the large and languid wing is close to the edge as far as his form goes when he said: "There were a couple of positions where there's a bit of heat coming on."

Again, questions are being raised in the New Zealand media whether one or two or even three of those positions aren't among the coaching staff. The papers were merciless last week, which is nothing new, but the team deserved it, which is. It's a long time since the men in black have displayed such uncertainty and inaccuracy in their attacking play and there must be an element of accountability in the brains trust for that - either for the inaccuracy itself or the unwillingness to look for another way of doing things.

That latter part is what has served South Africa so well. The Boks tried expansiveness last year and it hardly worked - sending the media into a frenzy over the controversial new coach and his methods, and/or the lack of them.

This year, the Boks have reverted to type, with a monster pack smashing all before it and some direct-running backs briefly giving the forwards a break from making the hard yards before it goes back up in the air or up the jumpers, depending on the field position. One prominent columnist wrote this week that it was criminal how under-utilised Bryan Habana currently is, but the victories being eked out by these Boks are hard to argue with. The addition of Morne Steyn to this team is unlikely to change the game much this week - it may end up even tighter.

But most crucially, the management now seems to have found its sanity. No longer is the focus on the crazed utterings of Peter de Villiers but on the positivity that the current tide of victories has created, namely because De Villiers has kept his trap largely shut and appears to be making a better fist of his tactical decisions. Whether this fresh impetus has come from player power or not is becoming irrelevant: all in green appear quietly and belligerently focussed on the task in hand.

Opinion coined from a number of local fans this week has revealed that while not entirely enamoured with the brand of rugby being played by the Boks, all are conceding its effectiveness and lauding the results. You can't even hear the knives being sharpened even more. Results talk a far more eloquent language than De Villiers has ever managed, and are broadcasting the message that all is, in fact, very well in camp Springbok.

All the above hinges on very recent and short-term form. The talent is there in the black shirts to turn all that on its head. Better service from the rucks could unleash a far more incisive All Black attack, a more measured defence would surely cope with the lone dimension of the Bok attack. It is up to the All Blacks to deliver that: a repeat of the nervous and error-ridden display of last week could yield a heavy defeat.

But with options to Graham Henry running a bit thin, that is all unlikely to happen this week. South Africa are on a roll and settled, while New Zealand are looking far from certain about what they are trying to do. The All Blacks could do with a trip home and a regroup before you could confidently predict a win for them again.

Ones to watch:

For South Africa: Morne Steyn needs to step up. Things can obviously only spiral downwards from landing a 50m penalty to win a Lions series, but Steyn did not exactly cover himself with glory in the third Test. Yet that was behind a lesser pack than that which will play in front of him Saturday, will he be able to deliver the measured control he delivers for the Bulls behind a first-choice pack this time?

For New Zealand: With Brendon Leonard so desperately disappointing last week and Graham Henry's bizarre reluctance to use Piri Weepu's level head from the off, the onus will be on Jimmy Cowan to both speed up and improve the accuracy of the distribution off the scrums and rucks.

Head to head: Owen Franks v Tendai Mtawarira. The debutante had a memorable debut last week, getting into hot water within seconds of coming on, nicknamed 'fatty' by Bakkies Botha, and generally making a nuisance of himself in the scrums. But a green Test prop up against the might of the Beast will have his work cut out in an area New Zealand desperately need to dominate in if they are to get themselves back on track.

Recent results:

2009 South Africa won 28-19 in Bloemfontein
2008 New Zealand won 19-0 in Cape Town
2008 South Africa won 30-28 in Dunedin
2008 New Zealand won 19-11 in Wellington
2007 New Zealand won 33-27 in Christchurch
2007 New Zealand won 26-21 in Durban
2006 South Africa won 21-20 in Rustenburg
2006 New Zealand won 45-26 in Pretoria
2006 New Zealand won 35-17 in Wellington
2005 New Zealand won 31-27 in Dunedin
2005 South Africa won 22-16 in Cape Town
2004 South Africa won 40-26 in Johannesburg
2004 New Zealand won 23-21 in Christchurch

Prediction: It's unravelling a bit for New Zealand. South Africa by 13 points.

The teams:

South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Adi Jacobs, 22 Wynand Olivier.

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (capt), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.

Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Luke McAlister, 22 Cory Jane.

Date: Saturday, August 1
Venue: Absa Stadium, Durban
Kick-off: 17:00 (15:00 GMT)
Weather: 21°C, heavy showers of rain
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Alain Rolland (Ireland), Tim Hayes (Wales)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

By Danny Stephens