News

Preview: South Africa v Australia

August 06 2009

South Africa stand on the brink of placing a hand on the Tri-Nations. A convincing win here and it could be all over for the other two.

The table makes for gruesome reading unless you are a Bok. Assuming South Africa win well in Cape Town - there's no reason to doubt it - the Boks would have twelve points ahead of New Zealand with four and Australia with just one. One win on the road would seal the deal, indeed, even a couple of losing bonus points would probably be enough.

It's a major flaw in the scheduling that allows for scenarios like this. Even with the idiotic schedule extension that makes the teams play each other three times and cheapens all the matches, surely in a tournament where home advantage counts for so much, a schedule could be found that does not allow a country to complete all its home games before the tournament has even reached the halfway mark?

You do have to take your chances, and South Africa have undoubtedly taken theirs. The two wins against the All Blacks were a fine return in themselves, but denying their visitors any bonus point might be the key to the tournament. It was in 2004 - the last time the Boks claimed the silverware.

Back then - it seems way back when, so many times have these two played since - Australia were South Africa's nearest challengers. Given the mess the All Blacks currently appear to be in, the same might be true this time as well.

Australia were a silly decision away from breaking the long-standing Auckland hoodoo three weeks ago. Had Berrick Barnes passed, chipped, scissored, even just pinned his ears back and run straight, Australia would have had a 17-3 lead as opposed to a 13-3 one. It might have changed the course of the game, one in which Australia had clearly been superior up to that point.

So far so good, but unfortunately for the Wallabies, the trimmed-down and open nature of their game was their fundamental undoing. Captain and senior players lamented the poor discipline in the aftermath, but so often were there only one or two people involved at ruck time, so often were those one or two significantly outnumbered, that penalties were inevitable. All New Zealand ended up having to do to win was tighten the game up.

Australia must come to South Africa with a different mindset this time, for they cannot afford to leave rucks undermanned against the green machine in defence. South Africa already have the game tighter than a recessionary budget and indiscipline is punished swiftly and effortlessly.

For Australia, getting the ball out of the goaling range of Morne Steyn's boot should be a primary concern. The secondary concern will involve getting enough bodies to the rucks quickly enough to prevent the nuggety mole of Heinrich Brüssow getting his mitts upon it and to prevent the Bok pack behemoths piling over it.

If they can, we will have a new situation on our hands, one in which the Boks will have to attack for their points rather than defend so aggressively.

Whatever the Boks have done in this series, it has not been born of deft handling and attractive running lines. Of their 59 points, 44 have come from the boot - 22 kicked points per game. Only one of their three tries has been of their own creation, the other two a result of capitalising on mistakes by the opposition. If Australia can shut up shop, the suspicion lurks that South Africa might not be able to play their way out of trouble.

But it is only a suspicion, and for those who must take South Africa on, it is the only hope left. South Africa have brought a completeness and maturity to this tournament that looks to be overwhelming the other less-experienced teams.

Against an Australian team still in adolescence and still creaky in the scrums, that will count for so much. Bravely as Australia will undoubtedly fight, you can't see anything but a convincing Bok winning margin. The only question to be answered is whether the Boks will be able to create some tries to mark their superiority with this time.

Ones to watch:

For South Africa: Heinrich Brüssow is the man of the moment in the rainbow nation, Schalk Burger might as well go into retirement at Saracens. Having outshone Richie McCaw twice in a row (with just a touch of help from his friends), he now faces George Smith. Another superior performance here might mark him down as the world's latest benchmark.

For Australia: Richard Brown will have to deliver a towering performance to eclipse his counterpart. Watch for Brown being here, there, everywhere as he works to match the green defence.

Head to head: Al Baxter v Tendai Mtawarira. The accusations of cheating and weakness levelled at the Aussie scrum have become decidedly wearisome at times, but there's no doubt that Al Baxter is the best of a less-than-brilliant bunch at Aussie tighthead, a position so crucial to the team on the field. Testing times for Baxter then, against a Springbok loosehead powerhouse and the undoubted strength in the scrum of Bismarck du Plessis.

Recent results:

2008: South Africa won 53-8 in Johannesburg
2008: Australia won 27-15 in Durban
2008: Australia won 16-9 in Perth
2007: Australia won 25-17 in Sydney
2007: South Africa won 22-19 in Cape Town
2006: South Africa won 24-16 in Johannesburg
2006: Australia won 20-18 in Sydney
2006: Australia won 49-0 in Brisbane
2005: South Africa won 22-19 in Perth
2005: South Africa won 22-16 in Pretoria
2005: South Africa won 33-20 in Johannesburg
2005: Australia won 30-12 in Sydney
2004: South Africa won 23-19 in Durban
2004: Australia won 30-26 in Perth

Prediction: South Africa to be too strong up front and to run away with it. South Africa by 19 points.

South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (c), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Adi Jacobs.

Australia: Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Richard Brown, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Ben Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 David Pocock, 20 Will Genia, 21 Peter Hynes, 22 James O'Connor.

Date: Saturday, August 8
Kick-off: 17:00 (15:00 GMT)
Venue: Newlands, Cape Town
Weather:Partly cloudy, 20°C, falling to 9°C
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Nigel Owens (Wales), Tim Hayes (Wales)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

By Danny Stephens