Preview: England v Wales
February 05 2010
It's 100 years since England beat Wales 11-6 at Twickenham, the first of this particularly spicy annual clash to be played at England's rugby HQ - indeed, the first international rugby match of any kind to be played there.
On that day, it was England wing Fred Chapman who was England's hero, scoring a try, a penalty and a conversion - which in those days amounted to eight points as there were only three for a try. England, featuring seven debutants, led 11-3 at the break and were good value for their win - the first over Wales for 12 years.
A hundred years on and things have changed a bit. Billy Williams' cabbage patch has morphed into an 82,000-seater cauldron, replete with hospitality boxes, a swanky hotel and a great big television. On the pitch, things have also changed: shorts are shorter, shirts tighter, players' wallets considerably heavier and punches considerably lighter. But Wales are still the ones on the roll when it comes to taking the spoils from such matches. Currently.
Yet Twickenham has not been a happy hunting ground for the Welsh down the decades. Before the remarkable 20-point second-half blitz two years ago, the last Welsh victory at Twickenham had been in 1988, when a pair of Adrian Hadley tries sank England. The last time Wales won two in a row at Twickenham was ten years prior to that, courtesy of three penalties from a Mr. Phil Bennett in a 9-6 win.
Warren Gatland's insistence on the development of a Welsh kicking game this week would have you convinced that a similar outcome would be top of his priorities, but as several other rugby writers this week have observed: he is fooling nobody. Wales will come to run the ball, England will try to stop them. Then they will try to nick the win.
More intriguing might be to watch what England do. The stench of solid pragmatism lingers around England's base a little too much for most palates, with even Lawrence Dallaglio launching an attack on what he perceived as a 'dictatorial' regime run by Martin Johnson where the players had no say and thus no empowerment to innovate on the pitch beyond the dire restrictive game-plan we saw in November.
Johnson responded in a cool manner by saying there had been 'full and frank' discussions, but he may just as well have pointed to his team sheet and said 'what about that then?' There is more in this XV than there has been in many an England XV down the past couple of years, but whether it will show is another matter.
Up front, England have significantly less to worry about than they did a week or so ago. Wales have lost two thirds of the Lions front row they had planned to batter England up front with; behind that front row England have little to fear. Wales can run all the ball they want to, it won't mean much if they don't get any to run with.
So expect pragmatism from England. Expect them to do as they are told, to do what they have often done: win it up front. But expect them to win? Don't expect them to lose easily...
Ones to watch:
For England: David Wilson has a big job, but now rendered a little easier by the withdrawal of Gethin Jenkins. Wilson also has a shot at becoming the man to regularly fill an increasingly up-for-grabs number three jersey. Against Paul James, Wilson will fancy himself to be the cornerstone of what is likely to be an immense forward effort.
For Wales: Gareth Williams hasn't won many caps, but is a stalwart of the Blues and has clinched his place ahead of the more youthful Huw Bennett by dint of resurgent form underpinned by a magnificent work-rate, with the latter going to be a much sought-after commodity against England's belligerent approach.
Head to head: Two men with much to prove are Mathew Tait and James Hook. The last time Tait played Wales it was as a stripling debutant; sixty minutes later he stumbled disconsolately off, the final humiliation his having been picked up by Gavin Henson à la one of Charlotte Church's handbags and dumped on the turf some five metres later. Finally, he's back, no doubt to show us what he is really capable of. Opposite him is James Hook, two years ago the next great Welsh fly-half, now the next great Welsh... something. Outside centre is his latest incarnation, after stints inside and at full-back. Perhaps he will find a home there? One thing all agree on is that he needs to be there somewhere...
Recent results:
2009: Wales won 23-15 at Millennium Stadium
2008: Wales won 26-19 at Twickenham
2007: Wales won 27-18 at Millennium Stadium
2007: England won 62-5 at Twickenham
2006: England won 47-13 at Twickenham
2005: Wales won 11-9 at Millennium Stadium
2004: England won 31-21 at Twickenham
2003: England won 43-9 Millennium Stadium
2003: England won 26-9 at Millennium Stadium
2003: England won 28-17 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2002: England won 50-10 at Twickenham
2001: England won 44-15 at Millennium Stadium
Prediction: This is a tough one to call. You'd suggest it could be Wales on paper, yet the memory of that lifeless submission to Australia is cause for concern, as is the weakness left in the front row by the withdrawal of Gethin Jenkins. We have a feeling that England might finally come good this time... England by five.
The teams:
England: 15 Delon Armitage, 14 Mark Cueto, 13 Mathew Tait, 12 Riki Flutey, 11 Ugo Monye, 10 Jonny Wilkinson, 9 Danny Care, 8 Nick Easter, 7 Lewis Moody, 6 James Haskell, 5 Steve Borthwick (c), 4 Simon Shaw, 3 David Wilson, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Tim Payne.
Replacements: 16 Steve Thompson, 17 Dan Cole, 18 Louis Deacon, 19 Steffon Armitage, 20 Paul Hodgson, 21 Toby Flood, 22 Ben Foden.
Wales: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Tom James, 13 James Hook, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Gareth Cooper, 8 Ryan Jones (c), 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Andy Powell, 5 Luke Charteris, 4 Alun-Wyn Jones, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Gareth Williams, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 Paul James, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Jonathan Thomas, 20 Richie Rees, 21 Andrew Bishop, 22 Leigh Halfpenny.
Date: Saturday, February 6
Kick-off: 17:00
Venue: Twickenham
Weather: Mostly cloudy, 5°C
Referee:Alain Rolland (Ireland)
Assistant referees: George Clancy (Ireland), Simon McDowell (Ireland)
Television match official: Jim Yuille (Scotland)
Assessor: Michael Lamoulie (France), Tony Spreadbury (England)