Concerns over Premiership dominance
September 05 2008
It happened on a quiet Tuesday afternoon in mid-August - but Bristol boss Richard Hill has already made a potentially telling observation about this season's Guinness Premiership.
English rugby's flagship competition kicks off at Twickenham on Saturday with the now traditional season-opening London double header.
Champions Wasps face London Irish, then Eddie Jones' Saracens meet Harlequins before a sizzling Sunday includes Northampton's Premiership return, fierce west country rivals Bristol and Bath locking horns at the Memorial Stadium and Leicester travelling to Gloucester, the club whose title ambitions Tigers ended last term.
A mouthwatering feast is ensured for starters, yet while the Premiership continues its rapid growth on and off the field, one wonders whether it is also moving towards becoming a closed shop.
Soccer's Premier League is a classic example of three competitions in one.
Outside of Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool, it is totally unrealistic to expect a serious title challenge from any of the other 16 clubs, even allowing for the somewhat surreal happenings at Manchester City.
Then there is a UEFA Cup-led charge to become best of the rest, while many usual suspects will spend the next eight months scrambling for points in a desperate survival fight.
So is the Guinness Premiership really any different?
The 11 previous Premiership titles have been shared by just four clubs - Newcastle, Leicester, Wasps and Sale Sharks - but both the Falcons' and Sharks' triumphs can be taken in isolation.
Newcastle, bankrolled by Sir John Hall, lifted the trophy in 1998, and Sale won silverware eight years later, but every other Premiership season has seen Leicester or Wasps prevail.
And the advent of play-offs has underlined their dominance, with all six Twickenham grand finals seeing one - or both - of them contesting silverware.
Essentially, only three clubs - Leicester, Wasps and sleeping giants Gloucester - appear suitably equipped to challenge on both Premiership and Heineken Cup fronts this season.
While others like Bath, Saracens and Sale should rightly feel upbeat about their prospects, it would be viewed by many as a surprise, even allowing for their players' considerable England international commitments, if Leicester, Wasps and Gloucester did not occupy the top three league places next May.
And as for an enhanced £4m-plus salary cap operating in the Premiership this term? How many Premiership clubs actually have that amount to spend on players' wages?
Bristol don't, and Hill also admits the plotting of successful Premiership and Heineken Cup campaigns is fiendishly tough.
"It is very difficult for a club at Bristol's stage of development to absorb the injuries that are bound to occur when you are playing Heineken Cup rugby as well as Premiership rugby," he said.
"Sale won the Premiership, then finished way down the table the following season because of the wear and tear they suffered in Europe.
"London Irish and Saracens reached the Heineken Cup semi-finals last April, but finished outside the top six in the Premiership and haven't qualified this time.
"We suffered a hell of a lot of injuries in the Heineken Cup last season. It was quite staggering, the way we were battered. Because of it, we fell away badly in the Premiership.
"I believe we can do a Gloucester here at Bristol.
"We are a bigger city, we have a genuine rugby community and we've worked very hard to put our club at the centre of it.
"But we are a few years behind them, and if the salary cap goes up again, we will have no choice but to keep pace.
"It's tough fighting against the odds.
"While I think it ultimately makes for better players and better coaches, squeezing out the maximum week after week, money underpins success.
"Look at the big football teams, or the Olympic cycling team, which has had millions pumped into it. In the end, rugby is no different."
Hill and Bristol continue to have the ambition, motivation and necessary level of finance to continue contesting a place among English rugby's 12-strong elite.
But you could risk solid bets on the following - Leicester or Wasps to be champions; Gloucester, Sale and Saracens contesting the other two play-off places; Bristol or Newcastle for relegation.
Just for good measure this season, the so-called ELVs (Experimental Law Variations) introduced by the International Rugby Board on a 12-month global trial basis from August 1 will make their Premiership bow.
Critics predict a chaotic outcome of aimless kicking in games with little pattern or structure, but supporters suggest a quicker, more dynamic spectacle that will richly reward teams' attacking instincts.
Either way, with everyone in the same boat, accurate form guides are unlikely to materialise until well into the season.
There is also the matter of England elite player squad members missing almost half the Premiership campaign due to Test business in November and throughout the Six Nations Championship in February and March.
That should not detract from what promises to be another compelling, thrilling Premiership season - it just perhaps requires a different, fresher finale.