Preview: S14, Round Fourteen, Day One
May 15 2008
The Super 14's final week of round-robin play gets off to a rollicking start at Eden Park on Friday when the Blues host the Hurricanes in a match the participants are dubbing a "quarter-final".
The Crusaders, who host the Highlanders on Saturday, are guaranteed top spot. But after that it's anything goes as the second-placed Hurricanes and sixth-placed Blues are among six sides chasing the remaining three spots.
The Blues must win, with a bonus point, to give themselves a shot at qualifying for the semi-finals, while the Hurricanes can seal a home semi with victory at the garden of Eden.
The first of two all-Aussie derby matches this weekend kicks off with the Western Force hosting the Brumbies at Subiaco Oval in Perth.
The Force face the unenviable record of losing to all three Australian teams in 2008 if they fail at home. As well as sharing the same record (6-6) and points (28), both teams come off tough losses and long flights heading into their derby.
With interstate bragging rights and Wallabies selections on the line this match is sure to be a willing affair.
Blues v Hurricanes
Eden Park, Auckland, 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
First up on the chopping block are the Hurricanes and the Blues, who will meet at Auckland's Eden Park on Friday, with the fate of the visitors, at least, lying in their own hands.
But the Blues have reversed the woeful-looking season they were enduring a few weeks ago and are now in real contention of claiming a spot in the Super 14 semi-finals.
With the last few games all being of a must-win nature, the Blues must now be accustomed to pressure situations where everything has been put on the line.
They're the most experienced side going into the last week at dealing with pressure situations having been dealing with it for a while now.
The Highlanders were the latest victims of the Blues as they lost 15-40 in Dunedin and were unable to secure the Gordon Hunter Memorial Trophy.
There were a few who said they wouldn't be able score four tries down south but the Blues managed to defy everything and came away with a good victory.
The result was a testimony to the ability the Blues possess of being able to deal with such intense pressure - something David Nucifora's troops will need to repeat against the Hurricanes.
It's a monstrous hurdle to overcome against their second-placed New Zealand neighbours, but the game is equally important for the visiting team and like the Blues, the Hurricanes need to win and both sides will put themselves under a lot of pressure.
The Hurricanes have the fourth best defence in the Super 14 having conceded 185 points, 65 fewer than the Blues. However, the Aucklanders have been slightly better on attack, clocking up 335 points to the Hurricanes' 293.
If the Blues are to lose to the Hurricanes this will be Nucifora's last weekend at the helm of the Auckland-based side, who is set to return home to his native Australia at the conclusion of the Super 14.
Prior to the last Super 12 in 2005, the Hurricanes had never beaten the Blues.
They did it at Eden Park in 2005, and repeated the dose at the same venue on the opening weekend of the following season's inaugural Super 14.
Now, Colin Cooper's men must do it again.
Even though they head into the weekend holding onto second position on the table, only a maximum point haul will guarantee the Hurricanes that spot for the play-offs - and their accompanying home advantage for the semi-finals.
Should they lose, the Hurricanes will almost certainly be deprived of second place, and could risk falling out of the top four altogether.
Ten points from the last two outings have given the Blues renewed hope, but they must win and then wait on other results, to see if their campaign is to be prolonged.
A bonus point win would temporarily lift the Blues to 41 points on the standings, and place them second, although they could still then be surpassed by each of the Waratahs, Stormers and Sharks as they complete their round robin engagements later in the weekend.
One advantage the Blues do have, which could become a critical factor if they finish tied on Super 14 points in one of the semi-final qualifying positions, is their excellent points differential.
It currently stands at plus 85. Only the Hurricanes (plus 108) have a better rating among the remaining semi-final aspirants.
This could be pivotal, as points differentials are the first ranking tie-breaker which come into effect should two or more of the teams finish on the same number of tournament points.
Super head to head: It's helping the Hurricanes' cause that scrum-half Piri Weepu gets sharper every week. With his fitness level peaking he can plunge fully into what he does best, which is basically be a roll of barbed wire in a jersey. He's so abrasive, strong and aggressive he reverses the usual role played by scrum-halves and loose forwards, where the number nine is the mouse and the loosie the ravenous bird of prey. When Weepu's playing it's the loose forward who must hope he doesn't catch this half-back's eye. Last year was tough for Weepu, but if he maintains his form he must be right back in the All Blacks frame. Opposite number Taniela Moa will face his toughest test yet of his short season against the likes of Weepu. Moa, a nippy half-back with a real eye for a gap, is devastating when the Blues forward pack gets rolling forward.
Prediction: Lose, or draw, and the Blues are toast. Yet another campaign that's ended with the three-time champions out of the money. Win, or more particularly win with a bonus point, and they're a chance at making a second straight semi-final, providing a result or two also goes their way over the rest of the weekend. We're going for the latter minus the bonus point. The Blues to win by five points.
The teams:
Blues: 15 Nick Evans, 14 David Smith, 13 Anthony Tuitavake, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Isa Nacewa, 9 Taniela Moa, 8 Nick Williams, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Troy Flavell (c), 4 Anthony Boric, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Nick White, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Kurtis Haiu, 18 Justin Collins, 19 Danny Lee, 20 Isaia Toeava, 21 Ben Atiga
Hurricanes: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Hosea Gear, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Piri Weepu; 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Chris Masoe, 6 Jerry Collins, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Hikawera Elliot, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Craig Clarke, 19 Scott Waldrom, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Jimmy Gopperth, 22 Tamati Ellison.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Jonathon White (New Zealand), Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Television match official: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
Assessor: Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)
Force v Brumbies
Subiaco Oval, Perth, 19:05 (11:05 GMT)
With Super 14 finals out of reach, the Western Force will be avoiding the unenviable record of losing to every other Australian side this season.
Having been pipped by the Waratahs and pumped by the Reds, the Force finish their third season with a visit from the Brumbies.
And with Laurie Fisher stepping down after the game, opposing coach John Mitchell will want to leave the outgoing Brumbies' head coach with few good memories of his last game in charge.
Both teams have 28 points on the table and both teams have six wins and six losses. Points difference between the two teams is just five points showing just how close these two teams are.
But anything can happen in a local derby, and the Brumbies have been the benchmark of Australian rugby for a long time.
Despite Fisher's imminent departure, and the mid-table finish from both sides, the Canberra-based side is still considered a cornerstone of Australian rugby albeit one going through some changes.
They still have that aura and what has impressed this year is the young guns that have filled big shoes and have played good rugby. The Brumbies will be a better group for this year's experience.
The Brumbies will be disappointed with their performance in last week's loss against the Bulls. Most of the first half was played against a 14-man Bulls outfit after Zane Kirchner, then Derick Kuun, were sin-binned for infringements.
However, the Brumbies only managed to add ten points despite playing against fourteen men for 20 minutes. This week, the Brumbies will be looking to use the ball more effectively and capitalise on possession by adding more points to the scoreboard.
Slow starts have proven costly in recent weeks against in-form opposition but the youthful Brumbies are not far off the pace and are capable of anything on their day.
The Force started the season well but then ran out of puff. They had ten players unavailable through injury last week - things aren't looking much better this week either - and still restricted the second placed Hurricanes to just two tries. They can look to 2009 with plenty of optimism as well.
Neither team will be short of motivation as they will try to use the fixture as a way of finishing on a winning note.
Furthermore, they will be wanting to impress in the battle for Wallabies selection, knowing that 24 hours later the Waratahs and Reds will be pitching their own cases for inclusion.
Even though the Force have home advantage they have never won against their Australian rivals.
Their last match was a tense and closely fought out battle in which the Brumbies eventually accounted for the Perth-based side 14-12.
Super head to head: Australia internationals Mark Gerrard and Cameron Shepherd will go into Friday's match as the chief contenders to replace veteran Wallabies full-back Chris Latham, whose Australian career was cut short by a pectoral injury last weekend. Rookie loose forward David Pocock gets a chance to show what he's got when he confronts veteran George Smith and also look for Matt Giteau to make a statement against his former franchise and young Brumbies fly-half Christian Lealiifano.
Prediction: The Force will need to improve on their performance if they hope to break their duck against Australian opponents this season. Pride is on the line and this could go either way, but we're going for the Brumbies. They are close to full strength while the Force have a stack of injuries to contend with. The Brumbies to win by seven points.
The teams:
Western Force: 15 Cameron Shepherd, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Josh Tatupu, 12 James O'Connor, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Chris O'Young, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 David Pusey, 4 Nathan Sharpe (c), 3 Tory Takiari, 2 Tai McIsaac, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Luke Holmes, 17 Kieran Longbottom, 18 Sitaleki Timani, 19 Sam Wykes, 20 James Stannard, 21 Scott Daruda, 22 Haig Sare.
Brumbies: 15 Mark Gerrard, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Stirling Mortlock (c), 12 Tyrone Smith, 11 Francis Fainifo, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Patrick Phibbs, 8 Stephen Hoiles, 7 George Smith, 6 Mitchell Chapman, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Alister Campbell, 3 Guy Shepherdson, 2 John Ulugia, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 Salesi Maafu, 18 Peter Kimlin, 19 Julian Salvi, 20 Joshua Holmes, 21 Matt Toomua, 22 Afusipa Taumoepeau
Referee: Paul Marks (Australia)/Nathan Pearce (Australia)
Touch judges: Ian Smith (Australia), Grant MacNeill (Australia)
Television match official: Geoff Acton (Australia)
Assessor: Scott Young (Australia)