Preview: Super 14 Final
May 30 2008
And then there were two. The Crusaders and Waratahs face off in what is expected to be a classic showdown for the Super 14 crown at AMI Stadium in Christchurch on Saturday.
Crusaders coach Robbie Deans, the most successful coach in the history of Super Rugby, summed up the occasion perfectly earlier this week when he said: "It's going to be an epic."
The Crusaders and Waratahs have proved themselves to be the two best teams in the competition this year by finishing in first and second place respectively on the Super 14 table, as well as demonstrating their overwhelming superiority in the semi-finals.
The clash carries more than the usual emotion of a grand final as Deans signs off a stellar nine years as the Crusaders' coach, while it's also the end of the road for the most successful Waratahs' coach Ewen McKenzie. But unlike Deans, who crosses the Tasman to become the new Wallabies coach, McKenzie does not have a job to go to.
Certainly Deans might have mixed feelings as he goes into this game. On one hand he obviously wants to bow out from the Super 14 on the winning note that his efforts deserve, but on the other he must be mightily pleased with what he has seen from the Waratahs this season.
If the Waratahs provide the core of the Wallaby pack, Deans will have a good unit to work with as he starts out in his new job, and the all-round physicality of the Waratahs effort against the Sharks would have been mightily encouraging to him.
So in a match laden with All Blacks and Wallabies, the 2008 Super 14 Final is one for the purists with the two best packs in the competition vying for supremacy to lay the platform for victory. It should also be noted that these are the teams that reigned supreme throughout the Super 14 when it came to domination of the collisions and tackle ball.
The Crusaders deserve to be in the final because they set the pace from the opening week of the competition, and until they faltered unexpectedly against the Chiefs, they had hardly ever wasted an opportunity to pick up a four-try bonus point.
Yes, the Crusaders may have given a lot of rugby critics a false impression in the last few round-robin games they played, but really, everyone should have known better.
The red and black machine have been past masters at clicking into gear just when they have to, and they did it again last weekend, with a good Hurricanes team being outplayed from first minute to last in a match where they just never got a look-in.
As the Waratahs did to the Sharks later on in the day, the Crusaders set themselves on the road to victory with a dominant display at the breakdowns, where Richie McCaw was his usual outstanding self.
The rest of the Crusaders' forwards hit their straps too, and as the score mounted against the Hurricanes, so the likelihood of the Crusaders being halted on their inexorable march to their seventh title appeared to evaporate.
While the Crusaders' victory was fashioned around a strategy of stretching the Hurricanes out wide, it was the tenacity and desire of their forwards that deserved most of the back slaps.
In the space of 80 minutes, the Crusaders shoved a red-and-black sock in the mouths of their doubters and qualified for their ninth Super Rugby final. This performance was light years from recent tepid efforts against the Reds and the Highlanders.
For their part, the Waratahs also deserve the opportunity to play in the Super 14 Final.
Their defence has been outstanding and after a grim attacking start to the season, their potency via the likes of Lote Tuqiri and Rob Horne have shown they can score points from set piece and, more importantly, from turnovers of the opposition ball.
Since February, the Waratahs have been boring, inconsistent, sometimes stodgy, sometimes enlightening, but most importantly they have kept on winning.
In last week's semi-final, they rose to a level that was required, producing numerous faultless sequences of play to indicate their trip to Christchurch this week may be more than an excuse to earn extra frequent-flyer points.
If they can replicate what they did against the Sharks, they could actually threaten the Crusaders. Honest.
It all revolves around commitment. It is one thing to act tough, it is another to be tough. But the Waratahs were just that. Their zeal in wanting to be dominant in every tackle soon saw the Sharks surrender.
Every member of the Waratahs pack was belligerent and produced classic semi-final tackles. One can expect the Waratahs to change their tune from classic to hard rock in Saturday's final!
So the pre-final vibrations are encouraging. The only concern is goal-kicking.
Kurtley Beale again struggled - missing five of his seven attempts last week. Some were hard, but several were easy, and in finals, missed points turn games. This Super 14 Final will definitely prove whether Beale has the big-game temperament, especially if a match-defining kick is involved.
The 19-year-old would want to be on target with his positional kicking too.
Too many Waratahs teams, in fact too many teams, have headed to Christchurch believing they can out-kick their opponents. Instead, they give the best counter-attacking side in the competition ample opportunities to charge back at them.
Giving possession to the Crusaders is a flawed tactic.
But the Waratahs' fans would have hoped their team had learnt enough from the semi-final to believe in the value of keeping the ball in hand, hurting their opponents in the midfield, waiting for overlaps and seizing half-opportunities.
If they do that, the Waratahs are in with a fair chance of winning their first Super 14 title.
But history is on the Crusaders' side, as they have won six of the twelve finals played since 1996 and have been runners-up in two more.
Furthermore, they have never lost a play-off in Christchurch, while Deans has never tasted defeat in a decider at home. He suffered his two losses in Auckland and Canberra, and he hopes to move into the Australia job with a fifth Super Rugby title on his resume.
The Waratahs are weighed down by a dreadful record against the six-time Super Rugby champions, particularly in Christchurch - their only win in eight visits coming in 2004 thanks to a 43-19 thumping. Interestingly enough, that victory was also McKenzie's first win in his first game in charge as Waratahs' coach.
Their venture two years earlier resulted in the unforgettable 96-19 win to a Crusaders side who were unbeaten in 2002 and are considered by many the benchmark team in the history of Super Rugby.
There will be no such scoreline at AMI Stadium on Saturday as this impressive Waratahs side under departing coach McKenzie is made of far sterner stuff.
But history still suggests they'll be up against it, with the Sydneysiders succeeding just four times in 10 meetings. Three of the wins have been in Sydney.
They have lost the five meetings since their 2004 triumph, including the Waratahs' first Super Rugby final one year later and this season's round-robin clash, both in Christchurch.
The 35-25 final result in 2005 flattered the boys in blue, who trailed 6-35 with time ticking away, only to restore some pride with three late tries.
The Crusaders ran the ball back and back and back, and eventually scored a hatfull of points. It was only when the final was lost that the Waratahs started running the ball hard at the Crusaders. Gaps were created. Breaks were made and the Waratahs racked up points. But they had committed the cardinal error of finals rugby - leaving their game in the dressing room.
It was the reverse this year, with the Crusaders trailing 6-8 early in the second spell before dashing clear with four tries in the final half hour to break open an arm wrestle.
Defences should be hard to unlock again on Saturday, with both teams boasting stifling records.
The Crusaders have conceded just 198 points this season at an average of just 14.2 per game while the Waratahs are easily second best with 199 points leaked. The difference is the points on the board, with the Crusaders racking up 402 per match at an average of 29 while their opponents can boast just 283 at 20.
Super head to head: The line-out has height throughout and Dan Vickerman's battle with Ali Williams, both physical and mental, will be intriguing. Whichever of them stays cool could decide the battle for the ball. All Black star Dan Carter is often cited as the Crusaders pivotal member of a star-studded squad and his confrontation with Kurtley Beale will be one-sided. Instead, it's the clash of the captains Richie McCaw and Phil Waugh that will raise most eyebrows. Waugh has been in solid form throughout the tournament and has been a menace against opposition at the breakdown. Luckily for the Crusaders, McCaw has hit form at the right time and will be at his punishing best to make sure the trophy returns to Christchurch for a record seventh time.
Prediction: The Waratahs gameplan was wrong in 2005. Have the lessons of past failures been learnt? The Crusaders are not unbeatable. The Chiefs and Highlanders beat them this season by taking the game to them for the entire match. History tells us Super Rugby finals are never blow-outs, with the greatest winning margin the 18 points the Crusaders enjoyed over the Brumbies to cap their glorious 2002 campaign. So, at the risk of stating the obvious, the longer the Waratahs keep the Crusaders close on Saturday, the greater their chance of winning. The Crusaders will look to make an early impression and may well try to swamp the Waratahs with a barnstorming assault. But if that doesn't work a war of attrition with the game going deep into the final quarter before the result is known can be expected. Forget about sentimentality with Deans leaving, the Waratahs have equally as much to play for with McKenzie on his way out. Home town advantage should tell in the end, and the Crusaders know how to use that. Crusaders to win by eight points!
Previous results:
2008: Crusaders won 34-7, Christchurch
2007: Crusaders won 34-33, Sydney
2006: Crusaders won 17-11, Christchurch
2005 Final: Crusaders won 35-25, Christchurch
2005: Crusaders won 33-27, Sydney
2004: Waratahs won 43-19, Christchurch
2003: Waratahs won 34-31, Sydney
2002: Crusaders won 96-19, Christchurch
2001: Waratahs won 25-22, Sydney
2000: Crusaders won 22-13, Christchurch
The teams:
Crusaders: 15 Leon MacDonald, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Scott Hamilton, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Andrew Ellis, 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richard McCaw (c), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Ti'i Paulo, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Steve Fualau, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Reuben Thorne, 19 Nasi Manu, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i, 21 Stephen Brett, 22 Sean Maitland.
Waratahs: 15 Sam Norton-Knight, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh (c), 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Dan Vickerman, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Will Caldwell, 19 Beau Robinson, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Matt Carraro, 22 Timana Tahu.
Date: Saturday, May 31
Venue: AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Kick-off: 19:35 (07:35 GMT)
Conditions: Clear skies, High 13°C, Low 4°C
Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Touch judges: Craig Joubert (South Africa), Cobus Wessels (South Africa)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
By Dave Morris