Steve Borthwick’s team couldn’t have asked for a much kinder draw for Australia in 2027
England will probably be the happiest of the main contenders after the 2027 Men’s Rugby World Cup draw, which took place on Wednesday 3 December.
It almost felt like the rugby gods were smiling on Steve Borthwick’s team when the balls came out of the pots in Sydney, because Pool F could hardly have been kinder to the 2003 champions, and current third best side in the world.
Do England have an easy route for the 2027 World Cup?
Each of the 24 teams in the tournament were seeded based on their world rankings at the start of December, and arranged into four bands of six teams. Each pool contains one team from each band.
In England’s Pool F, Zimbabwe (24th in World Rugby’s rankings) were the second weakest of the five teams in Band 4; Tonga (ranked 18th) were the worst in Band 3, and Wales (ranked 11th) were the second lowest in Band 2. In other words, Pool F could only have been more favourable to England on paper if Canada were substituted for Zimbabwe and Japan came in for Wales.
Assuming Borthwick’s men top Pool F – and the other Band 1 teams also win their respective pools – the draw for the knockout stages also appears to have gone England’s way.
While the winners of Pools A-D will face a third-placed team in the round-of-16, England (along with the winners of Pool E) are guaranteed to play a runner-up. That’s still good news for England, however, as they’re on course for a last-16 tie against the second-placed team in South Africa’s pool – probably Italy (ranked 10th) or Georgia (ranked 13th).
See more: The full groups for the 2027 Rugby World Cup
But in order to overcome the potential “disadvantage” of playing pool runners-up in the round-of-16, the winners of Pools E and F are also guaranteed to play runners-up in the quarter-finals. This means England are likely to get a very winnable quarter-final, probably against Japan (ranked 12th) or hosts Australia (ranked 7th).
Of course, there’s no such thing as an easy World Cup semi-final, but – given a choice between the other members of the “big six” – England would surely have opted for Argentina (ranked 6th) or Ireland (ranked 4th), their most likely last-four opponents.
If all goes to form, France (ranked 5th), New Zealand (ranked 2nd) and South Africa (ranked 1st) will be safely hidden away on the other half of the draw. In fact, if Eddie Jones Japan can get one over his old employers at Rugby Australia – and Georgia beat Italy – England could conceivably reach the semi-finals without facing a single team ranked higher than 11th in the world. Will they ever have a better chance to win a tournament they won the last time it came to Australia in 2003?
Could this be England’s best chance to win the World Cup since 2003? (Tom Jenkins/Getty Images)
How does England’s route to the final compare to the other top teams?
Assuming the Men’s Rugby World Cup goes to form and New Zealand, South Africa, Argentina, Ireland and France also top their pools, they can all expect a few more banana skins en route to the final.
In theory, the All Blacks, the Springboks, the Pumas and Ireland will all get easier round-of-16 fixtures than England, facing teams who finished third in their pools.
Read more: When did a British team last win the Champions Cup?
But New Zealand and South Africa are on course to meet in the quarter-finals, as are Argentina and Ireland. (Argentina and Ireland also have tricky opponents in their pools, in Fiji (ranked 8th) and Scotland (ranked 9th), respectively.)
France, meanwhile, can look forward to a challenging round-of-16 tie against Scotland (harder opposition than their current world ranking suggests), before a quarter-final against Wales or (more likely) Fiji.
All arguably face a harder route to the semi-finals than England.
Potential routes to the Rugby World Cup final
(Based on each Band 1 team winning their pool. Number in brackets denotes current world ranking)
New Zealand (Pool A)
- Pool stage: Australia (7), Chile (17), Hong Kong China (23)
- Round of 16: Third-place team
- Quarter-final: South Africa (1)
- Semi-final: France (5)
South Africa (Pool B)
- Pool stage: Italy (10), Georgia (13), Romania (22)
- Round of 16: Third-place team
- Quarter-final: New Zealand (2)
- Semi-final: France (5)
Argentina (Pool C)
- Pool stage: Fiji (8), Spain (15), Canada (25)
- Round of 16: Third-place team
- Quarter-final: Ireland (4)
- Semi-final: England (3)
Ireland (Pool D)
- Pool stage: Scotland (9), Uruguay (14), Portugal (20)
- Round of 16: Third-place team
- Quarter-final: Argentina (6)
- Semi-final: England (3)
France (Pool E)
- Pool stage: Japan (12), USA (16), Samoa (19)
- Round of 16: Scotland (9)
- Quarter-final: Fiji (8) or Wales (11)
- Semi-final: New Zealand (2) or South Africa (1)
England (Pool F)
- Pool stage: Wales (11), Tonga (18), Zimbabwe (24)
- Round of 16: Italy (10) or Georgia (13)
- Quarter-final: Australia (7) or Japan (12)
- Semi-final: Ireland (4) or Argentina (6)
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