Have the men in red reached a historic nadir after Saturday’s defeat to Japan?
On Saturday Wales lost to Japan in Kitakyushu. As well as extending their much-talked about losing streak to 18 matches (a record for a Tier 1 nation), Matt Sherratt’s side slipped to 14th in the rankings, behind Georgia, Japan and Samoa.
These are clearly dark times for the national team, but is this the lowest Wales have ever been in the World Rugby rankings?
Is 14th Wales’ lowest ever position in the World Rugby rankings?
Yes, in the 22 years since World Rugby (then the International Rugby Board) introduced its men’s rankings in 2003, Wales have never slipped lower than the 14th place they find themselves in now.
They’ve fallen behind the other nine Tier 1 nations, as well as Fiji, Georgia, Japan and Samoa. After dropping below Georgia, Wales are no longer one of the top-six sides in Europe, which could re-open the long-running debate over promotion and relegation from the Six Nations.
Wales’ fall will also make the new 12-team Nations Championship – featuring the Six Nations and Rugby Championship sides, along with (most likely) Fiji and Japan – much harder to call. Meanwhile, Georgia and Samoa will likely feel they’ve been denied a place at rugby’s top table.
How far have Wales fallen?
Wales briefly topped the World Rugby rankings back in 2019, during a three-month period when New Zealand, Wales, Ireland, England and South Africa all took turns in the number one slot.
But the side’s ongoing (and increasingly infamous) run of 18 consecutive defeats – their last victory came against Georgia at the 2023 World Cup – has seen them plummet down the rankings. During that time they’ve lost to Argentina, Scotland (twice), England (twice), Ireland (twice), France (twice), Italy (twice), South Africa (twice), Australia (three times), Fiji and Japan. They have never won a match in the current Wales rugby jersey.
Of the current top 15 sides in the world, no one has a bigger range of world rankings than Wales’ 13-place swing (1st to 14th), though they are matched by Japan (7th to 20th).
Wales last tasted victory in October 2023 when they beat Georgia at the Rugby World Cup (Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
Can Wales slide any lower?
To date, no Tier 1 side has ever dropped lower than 15th, though it would be unwise to bet against the Welsh snatching Italy’s unwanted record in the relatively near future.
The Wales fixture list offers little hope of a revival. The second Test against Japan in Kobe on Saturday will be followed by four Autumn Nations Series matches at the Principality Stadium against Argentina, Japan (again), New Zealand and South Africa. Then the men in red will face a Six Nations Championship in which they’ll be looking to avoid a third consecutive Wooden Spoon. In other words, of their next 10 games, only three (against Japan and Italy) look remotely winnable.
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In the meantime, the United States, currently ranked 15th, will smell blood. Although the idiosyncrasies of World Rugby’s ranking system (which we won’t get into here) mean the maths is rarely straightforward, the Eagles are currently on a run of four consecutive wins, and have a good chance of a home victory over Spain on Sunday.
Then they host England the following Saturday, which may leave Wales fans in the unusual position of supporting Steve Borthwick’s team.
Why does this matter for Wales?
The implications of Wales’ lowly ranking stretch way beyond national pride.
The newly expanded 2027 Men’s World Cup will feature 24 teams split into six pools of four. Each pot of seeds will contain six teams, so if – as seems increasingly likely – Wales remain outside rugby’s top 12 when the draw takes place at the end of the year, they’ll find themselves among the third band of teams.
They’d subsequently face the prospect of being grouped with two of the game’s biggest beasts in a likely “pool of death” scenario – and who’d bet on Wales escaping one of those?
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